Sunday, January 31, 2010

Demographic Reversal

Steven Malanga discusses plummeting birthrates.
The resulting population dive will be breathtaking. Japan's population, projections say, will decline by about 21 percent over the next four decades. South Korea's population, which swelled by two-thirds over the last 40 years, is estimated to shrink by nearly 10 percent in the next 40. Europe's population will peak in about five years and contract by between 6 and 16 percent by 2050...

Demographers are scrambling to adjust their population projections, with little notice in the press. In the early 1990s, United Nations researchers projected that the world's population would reach a maximum of 10 to 12 billion people (up from about 6.7 billion today). They subsequently scaled back that projection to 9.5 billion and then to about 9.1—adding, however, that it might be as low as 7.9. But the truth is that no one knows...
In City Journal, to which I recently subscribed.

I wrote about this back in 2004, way before I started this blog. For your convenience, and because it looks better in blog form, I have reproduced that paper as a post immediately below. My projections seem to be checking out.