The trouble with my best predictions is that I don't publicize them while they're still predictions. By the time they're fact, and I find out I was right, all I've done was predict the past. That's alright. I know what I said.
Last Thursday at a dinner with a few other geeks we talked about the Facebook IPO. I said I thought that Friday would be the high point for the stock. From there on, I said, it would all be downhill.
Two reasons.
First, the software is incredibly lame. In my group there are a lot of people who do web development. Have
any of you, I wondered, ever gone to Facebook and said, "Wow, this is
really cool. How do they
do it?" Of course not. The software is stupid. The local auto shop has a better web site than Facebook.
Two, the cool kids aren't on Facebook. Your mileage may vary, but when I joined Facebook I immediately got a flood of friend requests from old school mates, and of course I accepted them all. Good people; very nice people, and I'm proud to call them friends. But they weren't the really interesting people I remember from high school. Those kids weren't on Facebook. I know. I searched.
The big selling point to Facebook is that, by pilfering users' choice bits of personal information, they can place targeted online ads. Targeting whom? And selling what? Let's face it: the average Facebook user is the online version of the slow moving double wides you see in the Walmart aisles. You'll get a better return on your advertising dollar with full page ads in the National Enquirer.